According to the New York Post, President Trump and his team are vetting seven potential candidates for the GOP Vice Presidential nomination. I will give my take on each and rank order them in terms of how much they would help or hurt the ticket. But you might ask: who in the hell is this guy and why should we read any further? Well, I hold a PhD in political science (from back in the day when there were standards and plagiarism got you booted out instead of a ticket to Harvard leadership), was a professor of political science, and have been studying this stuff since Mussolini was a Major (ok, maybe not quite that long).
First, some good news. President Trump spoke at the Libertarian convention. There are hard-core extreme Libertarians who will vote for their nominee (who will lose); and then there are soft-core and more pragmatic libertarians, a fair chunk who whom may well vote for President Trump, unless he were to pick a nanny stater for VP. Fortunately, neither lightweight nanny stater Kristi Noem nor intelligent nanny stater Ron DeSantis is on the list of 7.
More good news. President Trump has a very good chance of receiving an historic percentage of the Jewish vote, as long as his VP pick is not, shall we say, questionable about Israel (I am not saying that every Jewish person votes solely on Israel, but it is
important to many if not most Jewish voters. So the good news here is that neither Tulsi Gabbard nor Vivek made the list of 7.
Unlike 2016 when the successful Republican ticket consisted of two white males, I believe the 2024 electorate would like to see more balance. There are two white males on the list of 7 and I rank them at the bottom in terms of electability. But race and gender are not the only reasons they would be poor choices.
Doug Burgum would be the worst. He’s the Governor of a small state that certainly will go for President Trump regardless. He did not distinguish himself in the primary debates. He is a billionaire. A Republican ticket consisting of two white male billionaires does not seem appealing in 2024 and would be the ticket most likely to lose, especially when there are other better choices and many in the electorate would wonder why Burgum was chosen. Burgum ranks dead last at no. 7.
Senator J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) is another white male from a state that President Trump will likely carry anyhow. He’s a smart guy and I like him. But President Trump already has the “hillbilly” vote. J.D. does not help the ticket. Finally, Senator Vance’s political and government experience is very limited. Vance ranks no. 6.
Now on to the five who would actually help President Trump win or at least do no harm, and would make good presidents should it ever come to that. I attended the Trump rally in the south Bronx. Congressman Byron Donalds (R-FL) spoke there. He is a good speaker and capable of rousing a crowd. At age 45, he would balance the ticket by age and race. On the other hand, he is no direct help in the Electoral College as President Trump will carry Florida regardless; of course he would help with the African-American vote nationwide. His experience, though a little more than Vance, is still a little thin. A few days ago I had Rep. Donalds at no. 4, but his recent unforced error of using “Jim Crow” brings him down a notch. He did not use that term in the way Democrats and many in the media are saying, but the damage is done. Donalds ranks no. 5.
Congresswoman Elise Stefanik (R-NY) was brilliant in her questioning of the corrupt and likely antisemitic Ivy League presidents. Since she is a Harvard graduate, the media won’t be able to”Sarah Palin” Rep. Stefanik. She turns 40 a couple of weeks before the Republican Convention; thus she would balance the ticket by age and gender. It's long overdue for Republicans to start appealing to younger voters. Before the rally in the Bronx, I would have given President Trump only a 1% chance of carrying New York State. Now I give him a 5% chance. If he were to pick Elise Stefanik, that chance might rise to 10% and perhaps a bit more, but still a long shot. So, once again little to no direct help in the Electoral College; though a fairly youngish woman on the ticket could have broader nationwide appeal. Stefanik ranks no. 4.
Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) also will not help in the Electoral College, at least not directly; but his hispanic heritage and personal backstory may well help in other key states. At age 53 a VP choice does not usually balance the ticket by age, but when the top of the ticket is 78 (though he functions more like 58), I think you can say that Senator Rubio balances the ticket by both age and ethnicity. Even though I think Hispanics are moving more and more towards President Trump anyway, selecting Marco Rubio would likely galvanize that trend, perhaps significantly. Rubio ranks no. 3.
Between two gentleman most fine I cannot decide who should be no. 2 and who no. 1; so I am calling it a tie between Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) and Dr. Ben Carson. Both appear to be in excellent shape mentally and physically. Both would balance the ticket by race and also by personality and style. At 59 in September, Senator Scott gets the edge on age over Dr. Carson, who turns 73 in September. Both are well-liked by almost everyone who knows them and it would be next to impossible for the media to stick a negative spin on them. This is also true of Rubio and Stefanik. If Scott has an age edge on Carson, why do I say it's too close to call between them. Simple: Scott is no direct help in the Electoral College because President Trump will carry South Carolina regardless; but of course Scott will help with the African-American vote nationwide.
Ben Carson would no doubt also help with the African-American vote nationwide. Dr. Carson’s advantage is that he was born and raised in Detroit, Michigan; and after earning a bachelor’s degree from Yale, went on to earn his medical degree from the University of Michigan. The election in Michigan is likely to be extremely close, and if a candidate with strong Michigan roots made a number of campaign stops around the state, we might finally have a candidate who could flip a state.
If one is thinking beyond 2024 and 2028, the edge goes to Senator Scott due to his relative “youth”. But a great football coach once said: “The future is now.” So if there were to be a coin flip, with the coin in mid-air I likely would quickly pray: Let it be Carson. For if President Trump loses in 2024, America’s future will be bleak.
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